基于营运数据驱动的船舶污底评估方法研究

Research on Operational Data Driven Ship Fouling Assessment Method

  • 摘要: 【目的】污底会严重影响船舶的航行效率,实际营运中通常在规定的船舶坞修时间内进行清污,往往难以在最佳的时间及时清污,造成船舶能耗成本的大幅增加。为此,本文提出一种实时的污底评估方法,能够实时评估船舶污底造成的性能损耗,为清污决策提供依据。【方法】基于无污底期间的船舶采集数据和气象预报数据,建立多层神经网络模型,实现海里油耗的精准预测,通过对比无污底模型预测结果与实测值的偏差实现对船舶污底情况的评估;采用距离阈值筛选方法对评估段数据进行筛选,避免模型偏移产生的预测误差,确保评估结果的可靠性。【结果】分别选择本船污底前、污底期间、清污后的三段非训练数据进行验证,对于污底前和清污后的数据,模型的预测偏差百分比约为7%,对于污底期间的数据,模型的预测偏差百分比达到13%以上。【结论】验证结果表面,该方法能够有效评估船舶的污底情况,模型的预测值和实测值的偏差百分比可认为是污底导致的增量油耗消耗,也有利于进一步计算清污收益。

     

    Abstract: Objectives Hull fouling can significantly affect the sailing efficiency of ships. In actual operations, the dry-docking time for ships is usually determined based on experience, which often makes it difficult to clean the fouling at the optimal time, leading to increased fuel consumption costs. Therefore, a real-time hull fouling assessment method is proposed, which can evaluate the performance loss caused by hull fouling in real time, providing a basis for cleaning decisions. Methods Based on the data collected from the ship during the period without fouling and meteorological forecast data, a multi-layer neural network model is established to achieve high-precision prediction of fuel consumption at sea. The condition of hull fouling is assessed by comparing the deviation between the model's predicted results and actual measurements. The distance threshold filtering method is used to filter the data in the assessment segment to avoid prediction errors caused by model drift, ensuring the accuracy of the assessment results. Results Three sets of non-training data were selected for validation, corresponding to the periods before fouling, during fouling, and after cleaning. For the data before fouling and after cleaning, the model's prediction deviation percentage was approximately 7%. For the data during the fouling period, the model's deviation percentage exceeded 13%. Conclusions The validation results indicate that this method can effectively assess the fouling condition of ships. The percentage deviation between the model's predicted values and the measured values can be considered as the incremental fuel consumption caused by fouling. This also facilitates further calculation of the benefits of cleaning.

     

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