Objectives  Aiming at the current situation in which it is difficult to efficiently evaluate protection probability through traditional lightning rod evaluation methods, an efficient numerical evaluation algorithm is developed on the basis of an electrogeometric model (EGM) and attractive volume to realize the efficient calculation of lightning protection probability at any point in space.

  Methods  This method first determines the attractive volume boundary of the lightning rod and protection object according to the interception process of the upward and downward leaders. The collection surface and exposure arc of the lightning stroke distance are then calculated, enabling the attractive risk and interception effect of the lightning rod to be quantified. Finally, the attraction and interception characteristics of the lightning rod are integrated to establish a numerical evaluation model of protection probability. To verify the accuracy of this method, the general rule of lightning rod protection probability is analyzed and the results compared with the existing analysis method.

  Result  The evaluation results of this method show good agreement with those of classical leader progression model (LPM) theory.

  Conclusions   The method proposed herein has a high degree of quantification and can realize the efficient calculation of lightning protection probability at any point in space, which can provide useful references for lightning protection design work.