延寿不确定性下疲劳损伤结构的维修策略分析

Maintenance strategy analysis of fatigue-sensitive structure under service life extension uncertainty

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  为降低船舶延寿不确定性的影响以及未来延寿期间的疲劳风险，采取基于实物期权分析方法的动态维修序列决策。
      方法  以高速船舶的局部疲劳为例，在船舶服役前期加强维修，在后期根据延寿要求确定适应性维修决策，以适应未来可能出现的各种延寿可能性。
      结果  结果显示，与传统的维修策略相比，实物期权分析下的灵活决策能够减小延寿不确定性的影响，有效降低船舶延寿期间的失效风险。
      结论  采用实物期权分析方法制定的序列决策对于未来出现的延寿不确定性具有很强的适应性，可为维修决策提供一种新的思路。

     

    Abstract:
      Objectives  In order to reduce the influence of ship service life extension uncertainty and fatigue risk during future service life extension, a dynamic maintenance sequence decision based on the real option analysis method is adopted.
      Methods  The local fatigue of a high-speed ship is taken as an example. This strategy strengthens the maintenance in the early stages of the ship's service and determines the adaptive maintenance decision according to the requirements of service life extension in the later stages, thereby adapting to the various possibilities of service life extension in the future.
      Results  Compared with the traditional maintenance strategy, the flexible decision under real option analysis can reduce the influence of service life extension uncertainty and effectively reduce failure risk during service life extension.
      Conclusions  The sequential decision made via the real option analysis method has strong adaptability to the uncertainty of service life extension in the future and provides a new idea for maintenance decisions.

     

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