基于精细网格模型的邮轮人员疏散模拟及实验验证

Cruise ship evacuation simulation based on fine-grid model and validation by experimental datasets

  • 摘要:
      目的  人员撤离分析是邮轮设计和安全评估中的重要内容,为相对精确地模拟邮轮上的人员疏散行为和规律,提出一种基于精细网格的邮轮人员疏散仿真模型。
      方法  首先,为刻画邮轮的内部空间结构,将甲板内部区域划分为0.1 m×0.1 m的基本二维网格点,并定义目标区域和功能处所区域这 2 类特殊区域;然后,引入行人期望运动方向和运动趋向性参数,建立自由选择最短路径和指定最短路径这2种人员运动规则;最后,以欧盟Safeguard项目的邮轮疏散实验为案例进行仿真分析。
      结果  对比结果表明:所建立的人员疏散模型满足ERDEPCSCTAT%等4项模型验证指标的衡准要求;与实验数据对比,全船总撤离时间、各集合站撤离时间的模拟结果与实验结果基本一致,其中全船撤离时间的相对误差为4.9%;与商用软件EXODUS的模拟结果相比,所建立模型的计算结果更契合实验数据。
      结论  该人员疏散模型满足邮轮人员撤离分析要求,可为邮轮脱险通道的设计布置以及人员撤离方案的制定和优化提供支持。

     

    Abstract:
      Objectives  Evacuation analysis is essential for the design and safety assessment of cruise ships. In this study, a fine-grid-based evacuation model is developed to accurately simulate personnel behaviors and evacuation rules during the cruise ship evacuation process.
      Methods  First, some key algorithms of the model are given: the deck spaces are defined as two kinds of areas, the target area and the functional area, divided into 0.1 m × 0.1 m grids to accurately describe the internal spatial layout and arrangement. Next, personnel movement rules are developed by introducing the parameters of the expected movement direction and movement tendency of passengers, and two rules of path planning are established, namely, the free option of the shortest path and the specified shortest path. Finally, a cruise evacuation case is simulated and the results are compared with datasets from a semi-unannounced trial of the EU Safeguard Project.
      Results  The results show that the evacuation model developed herein meets the requirements of the four validation metrics ERD, EPC, SC, TAT%. The times of the overall assembly process and each assembly station are well compliant with the experimental data, and the relative error of the overall assembly time is about 4.9%. Compared with the simulation results of commercial software EXODUS, the calculation results of the model developed herein are more in line with the experimental data.
      Conclusions  The proposed fine-grid model for cruise evacuation simulation can improve the design of escape routes and optimization of evacuation plans.

     

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