基于蒙特卡洛模拟的半潜式平台极限强度可靠性研究
Reliability of Semi-Submersible Platform's Ultimate Strength Based on Monte Carlo Simulation
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摘要: 半潜式平台是世界深海钻井的主要装备。我国南海的平均水深较深,油气资源丰富,自主掌握半潜式平台设计建造技术势在必行。结构的极限强度是半潜式平台所能承受载荷的上限值,充分考虑极限强度计算中的不确定性,并对其极限强度进行评估对于结构的安全而言具有重要意义。采用Smith法计算半潜式平台极限强度,用蒙特卡洛模拟对半潜平台极限强度计算中的不确定变量进行离散,然后将离散后的均匀随机数代入Smith法中,通过大量的循环计算得到半潜平台极限强度的概率密度曲线。通过与半潜平台极限强度名义值进行比较,发现变量的不确定性对半潜式平台极限强度影响较大,名义值不能真实地反映半潜式平台的承载能力。Abstract: Semi-submersible platform is the major equipment in deep sea drilling,and its design and construction techniques are essentially applicable to the environment of the South China Sea.Ultimate strength of the structure represents the limit load it can bear,thus giving full consideration to the uncertainties of ultimate strength has great significance to structure safety.Smith Method was used to calculate the ultimate strength of the semi-submersible platform in this paper,and uncertainties of the ultimate strength were listed with the type of distribution and the characteristic parameters.Monte Carlo Method quantized the uncertainties and the pro bability density curves of the ultimate strength were obtained through cycle calculations.Study results show that the uncertainties of the structure have great impact on the ultimate strength and the nominal value of t he ultimate strength could not truly reflect the bearing capacity of semi-submersible platform.