Maintenance strategy analysis of fatigue-sensitive structure under service life extension uncertainty

  Objectives  In order to reduce the influence of ship service life extension uncertainty and fatigue risk during future service life extension, a dynamic maintenance sequence decision based on the real option analysis method is adopted.

  Methods  The local fatigue of a high-speed ship is taken as an example. This strategy strengthens the maintenance in the early stages of the ship's service and determines the adaptive maintenance decision according to the requirements of service life extension in the later stages, thereby adapting to the various possibilities of service life extension in the future.

  Results  Compared with the traditional maintenance strategy, the flexible decision under real option analysis can reduce the influence of service life extension uncertainty and effectively reduce failure risk during service life extension.

  Conclusions  The sequential decision made via the real option analysis method has strong adaptability to the uncertainty of service life extension in the future and provides a new idea for maintenance decisions.